Disco Rankings, 2020
The Problem With Rankings:
Here’s a quick note related to the how and why of this year’s rankings. You likely won’t read this as you’ve already scrolled down to see where your team rates. The problem that has to be acknowledged here is that the difference between Team #1 and Team #12 was roughly 10 points overall coming into this week’s projections. 10 points separating 12 teams is an almost negligable margin, which actually increases the margin for error. Small mistakes here or there do not necessarily mean that a team is horrible in comparison to a “better” team, it just means that in a league this competetive that small mistakes can relegate a team to non-playoff status.
It is very likely that the records for teams overall will be very close, mostly clustered into the 6 and 7 win mark. The goal is to secure 8-10 wins (hard to do without significant amounts of luck) and avoid the 3-5 win mark (also hard to do because of the slim margins and relative parity of the league). The talent from the draft was spread very evenly and the question became how each person drafting built their teams. Everyone shifted to the “draft a stud, try to find a second star, and build around them” strategy. Most opted to reach for the stud running back. Some shifted and tried to build around the stud wide receiver.
The differentiator this year, in my opinion, lies in those who were able to find that second star and build a roster of solid, consistent contributors. Even though Week One is just about over, we still do not know who amongst the “solid players” will contribute equal value towards overall points per game on a consistent weekly basis, which is the major differentiator in summary. These rankings are my best guess (with the ESPN rankings system and projections as an initial guide) at determining who found the weekly contributors that help build towards 8-10 wins.
Tier 4 (No Playoffs)
12
Josh Thompson
Josh won’t like being placed here, and it is important to note that his team is not bad, and will win games and have an outside shot at the playoffs. However, while Julio and Tyreek can be counted on to produce, there aren’t many others on this roster that will likely be consistent point scorers on a weekly basis. (We like Josh Allen a lot but do not know yet what he will produce over 13 games)
Josh, like a few of the very high ranked teams on this list, tried to build around the WR’s and find value at the RB position. His placement here indicates our value for Gibson and Montgomery on a weekly basis.
11
Zack Hensley
We are big fans of Kyler Murray and see this year as a breakout year in a great offense with a great receiver. However, while Saquon will likely be a star, there are other star running backs or even simply very good to great running backs that may perform better, simply because they play in better offenses with better talent around them and better quarterbacks. Therefore, if one is going to build around Saquon, then you have to draft really well. It’s hard to say that Zack accomplished that goal.
10
Michael Sorge & Ray Phillips
Michael and Ray went for a more “hybrid” approach to team building in this draft, which was a smart move. Building around Josh Jacobs and Deandre Hopkins while also securing Joe Mixon should have been the recipe for a sure playoff team, and still may be.
However, the complementary peices are either average or below average. There is a some measure of dependance on the relative success - on a weekly basis - of the Bengals offense, which inspires little confidence; Diggs needs Josh Allen to be consistent; Herdon needs to be on a different NFL team entirely in order to be counted on.
Finally, while we think Dak Prescott has great potential related to a stacked offense, Mike McCarthy is never going to get anyone thinking, “Now THERE’S an offensive innovator for the modern NFL.”
Tier 3 (Borderline Playoffs)
9
Dane Mallernee
Dane’s team is okay. If you wanted to switch his team for Michael’s, we would not argue with you. In fact, go ahead and do that - put Michael here at 9 as a fringe playoff contender and move Dane back to 10 as a fringe fringe playoff contender. They’re both likely 6-7 win teams at best, they both have players to be excited about, but they both have enough “misses” in the starting lineup to be concerned or skeptical about their chances.
Dane built around the TE position, which was the most unusual move of the draft. This created lineup holes elsewhere that a TE scoring adantage may help him overcome here and there, but makes it hard to get excited about a team that starts DeSean Jackson and LeVeon Bell. Calvin Ridley is the kind of “All Solid Team” guy you need to draft and fill in around your stars; it’s just that Dane’s team seems lacking in the studs and stars department.
8
Cory Asbury
Cory’s team is the first team on the list that we really like. From this point forward, the margins between fringe playoff and top-tier teams becomes very thin. When Golliday comes back, this team will be more than fine at the WR and RB positions. The difference here will likely come down to the quarterback and tight end positions.
It is hard to project an older Cam Newton producing consistently with the WR corps that New England starts weekly; it isn’t clear what Jared Cook will produce weekly either. Cory holds this spot down because he has a team stacked from top to bottom with very solid players who will produce something consistently over 13 weeks, however it isn’t clear who the studs and stars are on this team.
7
Kenny Reed
I like Kenny’s team. I like Devonte Adams, I like George Kittle and the clear advantage he provides at the TE position. His team, beyond that, is filled with very solid to average players that are hard to get excited about. Cumulatively, like Cory’s team, the top to bottom mix of solid players is likely enough to get him to 7 wins and the playoffs, but I’m not sure if there is enough star power to make noise after that.
Tier 2 (Definite Playoff Teams)
6
Caleb Culver & Bob Powers
Good team, good draft - maybe one of Caleb and Bob’s better drafts in a few years. I like Zeke, and there are very good players that were drafted to fill out the roster around him. Dionte Johnson in particular could really break out, and it seems like John Brown has (and will remain Josh Allen’s number one target rather than Diggs). These are all good signs.
A championship really comes down to Matt Stafford and Odell Beckham Jr., and the teams, offenses, and coaches driving those teams inspires little confidence that Caleb and Bob can go from 7 wins and round 2 of the playoffs to something more.
5
David Sliker
Of course I like my team. You knew I would. The difference is that this year, you like my team too. You may not love my team, but any team with a top-3 QB, two solid to stud RB’s in Helaire and Carson (who both run for star QB’s and elite passing offenses that open up great running lanes), and a top-5 TE is likable. This is likely an 8 win team that has the potential to make noise in the playoffs. How far this team goes depends on its WR’s, and there is at least potential there. The problem that puts this team at 5 and not higher with the upper-tier teams is the unknown dimension of week-to-week production. What will Keenan Allen do with a new, and very average, QB? What will Sammy Watkins produce over 13 games, not just 1 or 2 great ones? Until those questions are answered, this team is stuck at 5.
4
George Reuter
Differentiation seems to begin here. I really like this team and how George built it. Taking one of the top QB’s one of the star RB’s, and surrounding them with players like Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, and Terry McLaurin are the kinds of moves that can secure 8-9 wins and put teams in the mix for the Championship with a little luck and a breakthrough player.
Tier 1 (Potential Championship Teams)
3
Joel Sorge
Joel built a really good team with the potential to be great. Between the #1 QB, Dalvin Cook, and Mark Andrews, there are stars at most key positions with Will Fuller V poised to potentially join them as a stud point producer. He is clearly Desean Watson’s primary target on offense, and that bodes well for weekly consistency. Most of Joel’s key players play for solid to great offenses, which can be the slim but critical difference between studs and stars. Starting Crowder over Ekeler on a weekly basis could put this team over the top.
2
Isaac Bennett
This is a potentially great team with stars at QB andWR, workable to very good players at RB, solid depth, solid contributers, but one potentially fatal flaw in terms of a championship: what will Gronk produce? The other question mark: will Gurley shine in Atlanta in the passing game? If Gurley catches passes from Matt Ryan, then Isaac’s team will be hard to beat on a weekly basis.
1
Greg Ahlquist
I love this team, and think it has the best chance to win a championship. Top to bottom, at every position plus the bench, Greg built a 10 win team that has the best chance to overcome bye weeks, injuries, and other flukes and win it all. I love McCaffery. I really like David Johnson as the #2. I like the WR’s - they are solid. This is a really, really good team and Greg had a really, really good draft.